Following is my ranking of the top 10 possible nominees in order of my best guess about which of them have the highest chances of being chosen. This is a fairly arbitrary exercise, without much more scientific validity than, say, handicapping horse races. My method does have the virtue of being as good as anyone else's who lacks real inside information, which no journalist is likely to have at this stage.

This ranking is based on media reports, online chatter and surveying various experts. It reflects the assumptions that President Obama will almost certainly want to choose a woman; would like to choose a Hispanic, but only if no other candidate does markedly better than the best available Hispanic on the criteria that follow; wants someone liberal enough to be a political hit with Democrats and moderates but politically difficult for Republicans to oppose; wants a stellar intellect with great judgment and the ability to write rhetorically powerful and logically rigorous opinions, so as to go toe-to-toe with brainy conservatives such as Justice Scalia and Chief Justice Roberts; wants a nominee with whom he has personal rapport; and wants a nominee with views roughly similar to his own personal convictions.

Finding someone known to have the ideal mix of views will be difficult, perhaps impossible. Most of the prospects have not specified their views on all or even some of the biggest issues that will confront the court. And as a general rule, lawyers and judges who lean left on issues like abortion and campaign finance reform also tend to lean against the executive branch in cases involving presidential war powers -- which happen to be the cases most likely to affect the success or failure of Obama's presidency.

With those caveats, here are the top 10:

1. Elena Kagan
2. Janet Napolitano
3. Diane Wood
4. Leah Ward Sears
5. Sonia Sotomayor
6. Jennifer Granholm
7. Vanessa Ruiz
8. Valerie Jarrett
9. Pam Karlan
10. Merrick Garland

News reports have named all but Sears, Ruiz, Jarrett and Karlan as on the list now being vetted by the administration.