Monday, May 18, 2009 11:53 AM
Say When: Experts Make Their Predictions
When will President Obama pick his Supreme Court nominee?
Administration officials recently said that Obama will make his choice before he leaves for Egypt, Germany and France the first week of June. But some in the media have speculated that it could be before Memorial Day, weighing the comments of lawmakers who have talked with Obama and others in the vetting process. Aboard Air Force One on Thursday, press secretary Robert Gibbs dodged reporters' inquiries, saying the goal is to have a nominee go through the process before the August recess so they can "start work with the Supreme Court on the first Monday in October."
NationalJournal.com sought out several Supreme Court observers from a variety of fields for their take on when Obama will announce his pick. What's the consensus? That the president will make his choice when he's good and ready. Some say it could be this week, while others say next week based on the White House's rough timeline.
Below are predictions from: NBC Supreme Court reporter Pete Williams; Slate senior editor Dahlia Lithwick; lawyer Howard Bashman of the blog How Appealing; University of Santa Clara School of Law professor Bradley Joondeph; George Washington University Law School professor and Volokh Conspiracy blogger Orin Kerr; Washington lawyer Adam White; University of Richmond School of Law professor Carl Tobias, and Federalist Society Executive Vice President Leonard Leo. In order to ensure honest and frank speculation, contributors were allowed to submit their thoughts without using their names.
Contributors' predictions after the jump.
• The Tuesday after Memorial Day.
• "Wednesday through Friday of [this] week -- because that would give Obama sufficient time to have in-person meetings with his top choices before announcing his final selection."
• "Obama will announce his pick after (and not even immediately after) the close of the current term. Obama has no incentive to rush a nomination, as that would only give critics more time to research the specific nominee. Instead, Obama will delay for as long as possible -- claiming that his administration is pragmatically and thoroughly deliberating a long list of nominees including not merely inside-the-Beltway front-runners but good judges and lawyers not currently favored by elite pundits. Obama will announce his pick late enough that (1) the Senate will feel pressed to move quickly to hearings and a vote in advance of next October's new term, and (2) critics will have much less time to focus their research on the single nominee."
• "I think Obama will announce only when he is ready and fully prepared, but that depends on his comfort level with the data he has and the nominee. As I have no access to that info, my best guess is after Memorial Day but in time to meet the 60-day limit the GOP has urged."
• Either immediately after or a few days after Memorial Day. "Who knows, but it sure sounds as if the president has not personally interviewed anyone yet."
• "Right after Memorial Day. If he thought Republican senators could give him trouble, and if he cared at all about their ability to do so, he'd pick Friday. But they aren't going to take out the knives (they are going to keep it very vague), and he's arrogant enough that he probably doesn't care in any event. So... he'll go with the glossier news cycle, when folks are back and watching news."
• The latter half of the week after Memorial Day. "He'll need the time through the Memorial Day weekend to finish interviews and wait for the results of vetting. Wednesday will fit best with his schedule."
• "Obama will announce his nominee when the Moon is in the seventh house and Jupiter aligns with Mars. (Which is an attempt at a humorous response to a question that no one you are asking actually knows the answer to.)"


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