I have shuffled my rankings a bit, moving Judge Diane Wood to the top of my list. The reasons include the news that Judge Wood was the first SCOTUS candidate to meet with President Obama and reports that the White House is especially impressed with her display of intellectual power and judicial temperament in 14 years on the federal appellate bench. Wood's judicial record has won the respect of conservative as well as liberal colleagues and many other experts as well.

I emphasize, again, that these rankings do not reflect my personal preferences, but rather my educated guesses as to which prospects seem most likely to win the nomination. I also stress that such guesses are no more scientific than handicapping horse races. Those who know the president's thinking on this don't talk, and those who talk don't know.

Moving Elena Kagan from first to second, for example, is no reflection on her other than the fact that for all her assets, she has not been a judge and therefore has not had the same opportunity as Diane Wood to compile an outstanding record on the bench.

I've also dropped Leah Ward Sears from fourth to seventh. While I still have reason to think that she is an outstanding candidate, we haven't heard much about her from the mentioners who are closest to the real insiders. One reason may be that the political payoff for Obama may be greater if he picks a Hispanic-American than if he picks an African-American.

Here are the new rankings:

1. Diane Wood
2. Elena Kagan
3. Janet Napolitano
4. Jennifer Granholm
5. Sonia Sotomayor
6. Vanessa Ruiz
7. Leah Ward Sears
8. Valerie Jarrett
9. Pam Karlan
10. Merrick Garland