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National Journal's The Ninth Justice

Friday, June 12, 2009 4:15 PM

Updated at 6:06 p.m.

If confirmed for the Supreme Court, Sonia Sotomayor will be one of the most qualified justices -- though not the most qualified -- and likely as liberal as Ruth Bader Ginsburg. That's the hunch coming from Jeffrey Segal, a political science professor at Stony Brook University who combs newspaper editorials to rank justices on their perceived qualifications and ideology.

The ranking system, known as the Segal-Cover score (Albert Cover was Segal's original partner developing the system), evaluates justices dating back to President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's 1937 nomination of Hugo Black. It uses a scale of 0 to 1: For qualifications, 0 is the least qualified and 1 is the most, and for ideology, 0 is the most conservative and 1 is the most liberal.

On the current court, Ginsburg ranks as the most liberal, with a score of 0.68. Antonin Scalia is the most conservative, at 0. And they tie for the most qualified, at 1 each. Segal analyzes editorials from the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times. The Journal was added starting with David Souter's nomination to compensate for the Los Angeles Times' drift leftward, Segal said. For Sotomayor, he started tracking editorials since the day after President Obama nominated her and will continue until the day the full Senate votes on her.

"She's going to fall as a moderate liberal," Segal predicts. "There will be evidence that she's not a doctrinaire. And she'll come out pretty high on the qualifications, but not at the very, very top."

How Sotomayor explains some controversial comments, especially her "wise Latina woman" remark, in the confirmation hearings will factor into her qualification score, Segal said, since editorialists will likely consider that in their analyses.

When asked about the bias the scores could reflect since they're based only on media reports, Segal said the inclusion of newspapers on both sides of the divide should ensure that they're an accurate representation of how justices are being perceived. He also said that the ideology ratings end up doing "an excellent job of predicting justices' overall liberalism or conservatism once they're on the Supreme Court." Statistically comparing justices' ideology score and voting behavior going back to the Warren court, Segal said there is a 0.79 "correlation coefficient." This means that you can predict the justices' overall voting behavior "fairly accurately simply by knowing their ideology," Segal said.

Segal and Northwestern law professor Lee Epstein, who collaborated on Advice And Consent, a 2005 book on the judicial appointment process, are working with Andrew Martin of Washington University in St. Louis on a project that will rank justices on the same criteria by analyzing thousands of blogs. How useful will this be considering the blogosphere's wide range from insightful to worthless?

"We'll find out," Segal said. "I wouldn't put as much faith into this as accurately measuring the qualifications or the ideology of Sotomayor as I would the editorial judgment we'll be looking at. But, we'll see what we come up with. It's sort of an experiment."

50 Responses

Jone Payoul

Friday, July 9, 2010

Based on her personal background (from a average working class family),experience on the bench coupled with her strong personality, I see her as a REAL WINNER. Sotomayer is just what is needed on the Supreme Court because she can hold her own and will not be intimidated by those male tyrant conservatives ! Brand New Lingerie

Raul Gonzalo

Monday, July 12, 2010

I totally aggree with you , Sotomayer is just what is needed on the Supreme Court . She has a great personality and she is best at what she do . And yah ofcourse she can hold her own and will not be intimidated by those male tyrant conservatives , thats why she is the best . Dubai Golf Courses

Camden Franklin

Friday, July 16, 2010

I agree too. Sotomayer is exactly what the Supreme Court needs. Not only does she have a great personality, she is incredibly driven. As a lawyer, I'm particularly impressed by how she is able to juggle her personal life with her professional. It's been a long time since we've seen a justice so open about her personal life and the stress her chosen career has had on it.

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Akan

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Well said "She's going to fall as a moderate liberal," I am really impressed by this statement, its really worth it. CRO

Christina

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

 I concur with Segal and also think she is going to be a moderate liberal. I think she is not a doctrinaire like many people think and the Senate should vote her. No one is perfect and her rankings are still outstanding. - Jordan

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Friday, December 3, 2010

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog, I will keep visiting this blog very often.

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Nastja

Sunday, December 19, 2010

I totally agree with Sotomayor. Rating system to confirm their necessity and quality of evaluations of judges. Such a system should be spread to other countries DENAS

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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

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Graham Barry

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch because I found it for him smile So let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!
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Jennifer

Saturday, March 26, 2011

A friend of mine told me about Sonia Sotomayor while were on a Fähren Reise. I think she has some very good potential.

Kevin Johnson

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Many thanks for your educational document. I am in fact at work at the moment! So I have to go off without reading all I'd like. However, I've added your blog to my RSS feed so that I can take my time to go via your web page.
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Thursday, March 31, 2011

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Saturday, April 2, 2011

I do agree totally with you. Sotomayor is as qualified as anyone to become a supreme court judge  and I do believe she will do an awesome job despite fears of her being very liberal. ... you top 20 songs team

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Sunday, April 3, 2011

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Friday, April 8, 2011

The post was able to express what it wants to convey to the readers. It has been a very effective approach which resulted to a profitable output for all who have been fortunate enough to come across it!
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Jens Moeller

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Quite a interessting topic when you think about it. I recently was on a jagd trip in the US and my friend said about the Sotomayor Score, Der Sotomayor Score ist schon ganz wichtig. Besonders bei uns im Business wo es auch mal darum geht gute Sportwaffen zu finden, ist es wichtig sich auch umzuschauen was das Supreme Cout macht. Deswegen ist es gut immer ein Auge drauf zu halten." My friend said that Jeffrey Segal has quite some influence and that it is important to watch him

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Sunday, April 10, 2011

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Monday, April 11, 2011


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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

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Thursday, April 14, 2011

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Thursday, April 21, 2011

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Saturday, April 23, 2011

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shinji

Sunday, April 24, 2011

I also agree Sotomayer has the best interest and is good at what she does.  I will also forward this to my friends who are also  interested in this.  Vodafone SIM only

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Wednesday, May 4, 2011

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Mike

Friday, May 6, 2011

 When asked about the bias the scores could reflect since they're based only on media reports, Segal said the inclusion of newspapers on both sides of the divide should ensure that they're an accurate representation of how justices are being perceived. 

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Sunday, May 22, 2011

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Mariah

Friday, July 29, 2011

Sotomayer is exactly what the Supreme Court needs, she has a great personality and she knows her profession. I am interested in seeing when easter 2012 is there with that important case if she's still as capable as before easter 2012. I am not very sure but I think she will be as good in that time period as she's today.

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Friday, July 29, 2011

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Sunday, August 7, 2011

When asked about the bias the scores could reflect since they're based only on media reports, Segal said the inclusion of newspapers on both sides of the divide should ensure that they're an accurate representation of how justices are being perceived. He also said that the ideology ratings end up doing "an excellent job of predicting justices' overall liberalism or conservatism once they're on the Supreme Court." Statistically comparing justices' ideology score and voting behavior going back to the Warren court, Segal said there is a 0.79 "correlation coefficient."  That is so cheap

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