Thursday, June 4, 2009 3:38 PM
Have A Seat: Experts Predict Confirmation
While Senate Judiciary Committee leaders sort out when Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation hearings will be held, what is there for the rest of us to do? Speculate, of course.
NationalJournal.com sought out several Supreme Court observers from a variety of fields for their take on when the full Senate will vote on Sotomayor and how many senators will vote to confirm her. The consensus? That Sotomayor will be confirmed before the recess and receive a comfortable number of votes. There won't be any teetering along the crucial line of 60 votes, either, the experts predict.
Below are predictions from: Tom Goldstein, founder of SCOTUSblog and Supreme Court litigator at Akin Gump; Slate senior editor Dahlia Lithwick; University of Utah law professor and Volokh Conspiracy blogger Paul Cassell; University of North Carolina law professor Bill Marshall; Santa Clara University law professor Bradley Joondeph; University of Richmond law professor Carl Tobias; Doug Kendall, founder and president of the Constitutional Accountability Center; Federalist Society Executive Vice President Leonard Leo; and National Journal's own Stuart Taylor Jr. In order to encourage frank and open speculation, contributors were given anonymity.
• Vote will come before the August recess. 75 votes to confirm. "Democrats really have tremendous control over the schedule. I also think the opposition is going to run out of gas and believe that Republicans will conclude that there isn't much to be gained by extending the process."
• Vote will come after the recess. 63 votes.
• Before recess. 78 votes. "The Democrats will obviously support their president's pick, and Republicans will wait to keep their powder dry for a pick that is more likely to switch the ideological balance on the court."
• Before recess. 70 votes. "The base will place a lot of pressure on the R's to vote no, but there is little in her record for the opposition to gain traction."
• Before recess, "unless something new emerges. I'm no whip, but I would guess around 70 to 75. Aside from a few isolated utterances in non-judicial settings, there is very little controversial in Judge Sotomayor's record."
• After recess. 80 votes. "I think this is all wildly speculative because the GOP is clearly in crisis mode -- trying to sort out whether to Bork her or not. Until they settle on a strategy, the strategy will be to delay. Beyond that, whether they go after her or support her to avoid losing women and Hispanic voters is still, I think, very much an unsettled question."
• Before recess. 68 votes. "Conservatives will push and get more 'no' votes than against Roberts, but the nomination will never be in serious jeopardy (no serious filibuster threat)."
• Before recess. 64 votes.
• Before recess. 80 votes. "Obama promptly selected a nominee who is highly qualified, and the White House has effectively presented the judge to the American public while attempting to meet GOP demands regarding time to prepare fully."


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