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Monday, June 15, 2009 10:45 AM

It didn't take President Obama very long to pick Sonia Sotomayor as his nominee to replace Supreme Court Justice David Souter, but he may face the same difficult choice again soon. With Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and John Paul Stevens likely approaching the end of their tenures, Obama could end up naming at least two more justices to the high court. What would he be looking for in his second and third nominees?

Court observers predict he will seek out consensus candidates -- or at least non-provocative ones. In his selection of Sotomayor, liberal and conservative experts alike say Obama hoped to minimize the political cost of filling the court vacancy. The nomination shows "he has certain issues that are his highest priorities that he knows could be a political challenge," said Geoffrey Stone, a law professor at the University of Chicago. "This selection of the Supreme Court justice isn't one in which he wants to expend any of that capital."

Should another vacancy open up in the near future, with Obama busy tackling issues like health care and the economy, he would be unlikely to nominate a crusading liberal justice in the mold of William Brennan or Thurgood Marshall despite calls from the left, Stone said. If retirements come later in his first term, or if he wins a second, the White House would have a firmer footing to try and push a bolder liberal voice through Congress.

Even if Obama seeks to nominate noncontroversial justices further down the line, he'll have plenty of outside expectations to balance. Should the 76-year-old Ginsburg retire, for example, Obama will almost certainly face the same pressure to appoint a woman that he did this time around. After all, he would be back at square one, with only one woman -- Sotomayor, if she's confirmed -- on the high court.

That fact has not gone unnoticed by the White House. Just days after Sotomayor's nomination, David Axelrod praised the other candidates before a small group of columnists. "It wouldn't at all surprise me if some of the very same people were back in the Oval Office" should Obama get another chance at a nomination, Axelrod said. The other candidates who had personal interviews with Obama were Solicitor General Elena Kagan, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Judge Diane Wood.

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