Friday, August 7, 2009

Parsing The GOP's Sotomayor Vote

President Obama said he was "very happy" with the 68-31 vote by which Sonia Sotomayor was confirmed, with nine Republicans breaking to join a unanimous Democrat conference -- minus the ailing Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. -- to support the nominee.

But according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Wednesday, only 27 percent of Republicans said the Senate should confirm Sotomayor while 58 percent opposed the nomination. And just 22.5 percent of Senate Republicans eventually voted to confirm her.

How bipartisan was the vote? A closer look at which senators voted yes or no reveals that most who are seeking re-election or election to another office voted against Sotomayor's nomination.

Of the GOP senators standing for re-election next year, all 12 voted against Sotomayor. Sens. Robert Bennett of Utah and John McCain of Arizona are facing primary challenges from conservative rivals. Although they have no declared challengers, Sens. Johnny Isakson of Georgia, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and David Vitter of Louisiana may wish to preemptively discourage any potential primary opponents.

Of the seven Republicans likely to retire between now and 2010, four voted yes -- Sens. Christopher (Kit) Bond of Missouri, Judd Gregg of New Hampshire, Mel Martínez of Florida and George Voinovich of Ohio. Voting no were retiring Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Jim Bunning of Kentucky and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas. Brownback and Hutchison intend to run for governor in their respective states.

In other words, four of the nine GOP senators who voted yes will be retiring in 2010.

According to the 2008 exit polls, Hispanics made up 9 percent of the national electorate. In states represented by Republicans whose 2008 electorate was more than 9 percent Hispanic -- Arizona (16 percent), Florida (14 percent), Nevada (15 percent) and Texas (20 percent) -- only one out of six senators (the retiring Martínez) voted for Sotomayor. Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, Senate Minority Whip Jon Kyl of Arizona, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn of Texas, Hutchison and McCain all voted against.

The statements of GOP candidates were more mixed. New Jersey gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie announced he would have voted to confirm Sotomayor. So did former Rep. Pat Toomey, who is vying for the seat of Sen. Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. But former Rep. Rob Simmons, who is challenging Sen. Christopher Dodd in Connecticut, said he would have voted against her. Both Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and former Florida state House Speaker Marco Rubio -- seeking to replace Martínez -- said they'd vote no. So did Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who is running to replace Bunning.

The word from the list of potential Republican candidates for president was also "no." Sens. Jim DeMint of South Carolina and John Thune of South Dakota, mentioned as possible 2012 candidates, both voted no. Outside the Senate, former governors Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas issued statements critical of Sotomayor's nomination on the day it was made. Romney called Sotomayor's nomination "troubling," and Huckabee said she "comes from the far left."

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich infamously tweeted that Sotomayor was "racist" and should withdraw her nomination, before walking back the "racist" charge.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, notably, declined to announce how they would have voted.

Also notable in the vote:

• Of the four Republicans left in the Senate from the "Gang of 14" -- the bipartisan group formed four years ago to prevent the so-called "nuclear option" from being invoked regarding Bush administration judicial nominees -- three voted for Sotomayor: Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina. Only McCain voted no.

• The only remaining senator (of nine total) to vote against Justice Stephen Breyer, Indiana Republican Richard Lugar, voted for Sotomayor. The three senators who voted against Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg are no longer in office.

• Senators who voted for Breyer and Ginsburg but against Sotomayor included Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Sens. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, Bennett, Hutchison and McCain. Grassley and Hatch, in their long tenures both in the Senate and on the Judiciary Committee, had never voted against a SCOTUS nominee.

• Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., holds the distinction of being the only senator to vote against both Robert Bork and Sotomayor. Shelby, a Democrat back then, converted to the GOP seven years after the Bork vote.

• Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., voted against Thurgood Marshall in 1967 but voted for Sotomayor.