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Nearly half of Americans say they do not know enough about Solicitor General Elena Kagan to judge whether she should be confirmed as the next Supreme Court justice, according to a new poll.
The Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted with the Pew Research Center, found that 33 percent said she should be confirmed, 21 percent said she should not be confirmed and a whopping 46 percent volunteered that they did not know.
The number of people who do not know about Kagan is likely to change as the Senate moves into the confirmation process, starting with a June 28 hearing that Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy announced this morning.
For the complete results, check out the Congressional Connection Poll
Across party lines, the pick of Elena Kagan is not as well received as that of Sonia Sotomayor, according to Gallup's instant polling.
Kagan is viewed favorably by 63 percent of Democrats, 35 percent of independents, and 18 percent of Republicans. After her nomination, Sotomayor impressed 72 percent of Democrats, 40 percent of independents and 29 percent of Republicans.
Part of the problem is that more people have "no opinion" of Kagan, who doesn't offer as vivid a personal story as Sotomayor. The 24 percent of respondents who have no opinion of Kagan is the highest recorded by Gallup since it began reviewing instant reaction in 2005, when 15 percent offered no opinion of John Roberts.
A comparison of Gallup's findings over the years:
A new Fox News poll shows Democrats, Republicans and independents generally in agreement on the criteria of characteristics, professional background and ideological affiliations President Obama should consider or not consider when selecting a new justice.
When asked about the nominee being a woman, 77 percent of Democrats, 87 percent of Republicans and 87 percent of independents agreed that it "shouldn't matter." The nominee being "a minority" drew similar results, and smaller but still robust majorities said it shouldn't matter if the nominee was "a homosexual."
About half of Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed that the nominee's being an attorney, a judge or a constitutional scholar should be "a factor" -- not the "single most important" factor, nor an unimportant one. There was some disagreement on the question of whether the nominee went to an Ivy League school or a "less elite, everyday American law school": A plurality of Republicans preferred the latter, while a plurality of Democrats and a majority of independents said it made no difference.
Those of all all political affiliations agreed that it would not matter if there were no justices with a "Protestant religious background" (John Paul Stevens was the only remaining Protestant on the court), and all were comfortable with the nominee being a Mormon or a Christian "who takes the Bible literally."
Respondents were not comfortable, however, with the idea of a Muslim, atheist or "socialist" on the Supreme Court. Thin majorities of Democrats and independents said they were comfortable with a Muslim, but fully 66 percent of Republicans said they were not comfortable. Republicans were also overwhelmingly opposed to an atheist or "socialist," while Democrats and independents split about evenly on the former and Democrats split evenly on the latter. All parties agreed they were comfortable with a libertarian on the court.
The poll surveyed 900 registered voters nationwide last week, with a 3-point margin of error.
More Americans oppose Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation to the Supreme Court than any other successful nominee in the last two decades, according to two new polls conducted immediately after her confirmation hearings last week.
Nonetheless, support for Sotomayor's confirmation has remained steady throughout the nomination process, hovering at least a few percentage points above the 50 percent mark the entire time, trend data from the USA Today/Gallup and ABC/Washington Post polls show. At the same time though, the percentage of these surveys' respondents who oppose confirmation rose from last week, while support remained largely the same. USA Today/Gallup pollsters found that 36 percent now oppose Sotomayor's confirmation, compared to 33 percent last week. In the ABC/Post survey, 30 percent now oppose, up 5 percentage points from last week.
So, what accounts for the opposition? According to both polls, respondents who once indicated they were undecided are now lining up to oppose Sotomayor. "With only 9 percent of Americans expressing no opinion about Sotomayor's fate, the lowest seen for any nominee, she now garners more opposition than any Supreme Court nominee of the past two decades, except for the unsuccessful Harriet Miers," Gallup senior editor Lydia Saad explains in the USA Today/Gallup analysis. Trend data from both polls shows comparative numbers for past nominees, specifically looking at polling before and after each nominee's hearings. According to the numbers by USA Today and Gallup, Sotomayor's 36 percent opposition is well above all other nominees since Clarence Thomas' nomination, excluding Miers (who withdrew before the hearings would have taken place). In the ABC/Post survey, dissatisfaction with Sotomayor tops all recent nominees. Still, that doesn't compete with the 57 percent of respondents who the poll said opposed Robert Bork's nomination in 1987.
Legal experts on both ends of the ideological spectrum have emphasized how much more politicized the Supreme Court confirmation process has become over the last several nominations. This could explain the amount of opposition against Sotomayor's nomination, despite how comparatively calm and predictable her hearings were and the growing consensus on both sides of the aisle that she will be confirmed. Saad speculates: "While, perhaps, not a deterrent to her winning confirmation, it [the increased opposition] signals that the Republican criticisms of her that were aired starting before the hearings began have had some effect."
If confirmed by the Senate, Sonia Sotomayor would join a Supreme Court that has seen its popularity rise among Democrats in the last year. According to a Gallup poll released this week, 7 in 10 Democratic respondents approve of the job the high court is doing, compared to 49 percent of Republican respondents.
Rewind to last fall, however, and those numbers were nearly reversed, suggesting that the partisan popularity of the court rises and falls depending on which party is in power. Last September, in the waning months of the Bush administration, 65 percent of Republicans approved, versus just 38 percent of Democrats. Gallup's trend data showed a similar fluctuation from the last months of President Clinton's administration to George W. Bush's first month.
Gallup noted the phenomenon and the role that major events sometimes play in party perception, but added that the new ratings may indicate "a more positive view of government in general" and the view that "none of the Supreme Court's rulings thus far in the 2008-2009 term has been particularly controversial." Independents' approval scored at 57 percent in the new poll, compared to 47 percent in September.
The poll surveyed 1,011 adults nationwide June 14-17 and has a 3-point margin of error.
Some 58 percent of respondents in a CBS News/New York Times survey that wrapped up this week say they haven't heard enough about Sonia Sotomayor to form an opinion on her or haven't made up their minds. In addition, 53 percent couldn't say if she should be confirmed or rejected. On both questions, about one-third of respondents viewed her positively and 9 percent negatively.
Respondents in a poll conducted at about the same time for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal were a little more certain -- 43 percent supported her either strongly or somewhat, 20 percent opposed her, and 35 percent didn't know enough to say (that's still a better number than any of George W. Bush's three nominees had).
Read the full story here.
A new poll finds that while Americans in each of four geographic regions generally approve of Sonia Sotomayor's nomination, her support is weakest in the South.
The Marist Poll, which queried 1,028 registered voters June 1-3, found that Sotomayor had 44 percent approval and 35 percent disapproval in the Republican-heavy South, compared to 68/18 in the Northeast, 58/25 in the Midwest and 56/28 in the West.
Perhaps suggesting a mixture of discontent and disinterest, respondents in the South also had the highest percentage saying they were unsure: 21 percent. The left-leaning Northeast, which got a little bluer in the last presidential race and congressional elections, recorded the lowest disapproval rate at 14 percent.
Sonia Sotomayor's nomination is a big lift for Democrats and something of a problem for Republicans, according to National Journal's new poll of members of Congress and top political bloggers.
Democratic Insiders and left-leaning bloggers were in close agreement on Sotomayor: A little under two-thirds of each group said her nomination would be a major benefit for their party, and just under one-third called it a minor benefit.
"We can't brag about having a representative democracy and not follow through on that. She will help build confidence in our judicial system," remarked one Insider who predicted a major benefit. Another, who saw a minor benefit, said Sotomayor "would provide much-needed balance to the seven Republican-appointed justices, as well as (and this is key) represent the fastest-growing and most hotly-contested demographic in the country."
Another common theme was political advantage over the GOP. Greg Dworkin of Daily Kos wrote, "The Republicans can't win on this issue, and they are already showing they can lose... lose Latinos, lose women, lose votes."
On the right, 33 percent of GOP Insiders said Sotomayor would be a minor benefit to them, while 41 percent said the nomination would do them minor harm. The divide was more pronounced among right-leaning bloggers, of whom 25 percent said it would produce a minor benefit and 58 percent a minor harm.
Those who predicted a benefit saw the opportunity to rally the right. "Conservatives awaken to Obama's judicial philosophy: one part empathy, two parts identity politics," said one Insider. But the flip side was evident in the responses of those who predicted harm. "Having some of the more vocal conservatives call her a racist was beyond dumb," lamented one Insider. Walter Olson of Overlawyered commented, "Her actual rulings don't bear out the 'scary radical' meme. That Senate Dems were equally unfair to Miguel Estrada will, along with $3.26, buy you a latte at Starbucks."
Most Americans disagree with Sonia Sotomayor's decision in the New Haven, Conn., firefighters case, but most also say her ruling doesn't make them more or less likely to support her nomination to the Supreme Court, a new poll finds.
The Quinnipiac University poll, released this morning, shows that 59 percent of respondents said Sotomayor's vote in Ricci v. DeStefano doesn't make a difference to them, while 28 percent say it makes them less likely to support her nomination and 7 percent say it makes them more likely. Republicans don't show overwhelming opposition based on this one case: 48 percent said it would make them less likely to support her, while 43 percent said it wouldn't make a difference.
At the same time, just over 70 percent of respondents -- including 59 percent of Democrats -- said the Supreme Court should order New Haven to promote the firefighters who scored high enough for promotion.
In Ricci, Sotomayor was part of a 2nd Circuit Court panel that supported the city's decision to discard the results of a firefighter promotion exam because no black applicants qualified for promotion. The suit was brought by several white firefighters and one Hispanic firefighter who claimed discrimination.
Looking at affirmative action more generally, 55 percent of respondents said preferences in hiring, promotions and college admissions should be abolished. When that question is broken down by political party and gender, Democrats are the only group with a majority supporting affirmative action (57 percent support, while 33 percent oppose).
The poll also asked respondents if they supported or opposed affirmative action with regard to specific groups: Hispanics, blacks, white women, people with disabilities, and gays and lesbians. Only the disabled registered support among more than one political group. Critics of the New Haven decision often point out that Frank Ricci, one of the firefighters who brought the claim, has dyslexia and had to put in extra effort in order to pass the exam.
The poll was conducted May 26 to June 1 and surveyed 3,097 registered voters around the country.
While conservative talk show hosts and some GOP politicians sound ready to man the barricades to stop Judge Sonia Sotomayor from joining the Supreme Court, Republican participants in the latest National Journal Insiders Poll wouldn't advise it. Of the 89 Republican Insiders who responded to this week's survey, 64 percent said it would not be politically smart for Republicans to try to block her confirmation, while 24 percent said it would be. Another 12 percent said the answer to that question depends on what additional information comes out about her in the confirmation process.
Not surprisingly, an overwhelming 89 percent of the 92 Democratic Insiders who responded to the poll said it would not be politically smart for Republicans to try to block her.
The Republican Insiders who were against trying to block Sotomayor listed several reasons for not doing so, including:
• "Such a move would alienate Hispanic voters from whom the GOP cannot afford to lose any more support."
• "It could also antagonize many women, another group to which the party needs to build more bridges."
• "She can't be that liberal if she was first appointed to the bench by President George H. W. Bush."
• "Her life story as the daughter of a single mom who goes on get an Ivy League education and a seat on the federal judiciary would be compelling to many Americans."
Just under 50 percent of respondents in a one-night poll Gallup conducted the day President Obama nominated Sonia Sotomayor for the Supreme Court rated his pick as "excellent" or "good." Two in every 10 described the choice as "only fair," while just under 15 percent said "poor." Twenty percent didn't have an opinion, the most Gallup has found in Supreme Court nominee polling dating back to John Roberts' nomination in the summer of 2005.
While Americans' initial reactions to the last four high court nominees have been positive on balance, Sotomayor's net positive of 14 percentage points is a strong second behind Roberts' 17 points. Samuel Alito was plus-4 and Harriet Miers was plus-3, both in 2005.
When broken down by political party and gender, the reaction becomes more polarized. While nearly three-quarters of Democrats rated Sotomayor's nomination as either "excellent" or "good," fewer than 30 percent of Republicans indicated so. On top of that, more than one-quarter described it as "poor." About 22 percent of independents said they have no opinion, compared to 19 percent of Republicans and only 11 percent of Democrats, perhaps reflecting the political and ideological bent of the Supreme Court debate.
Women generally rated the Sotomayor pick more positively than men, but the biggest disparity between the genders shows up in the bottom end of the scale. Just under 20 percent of men said the pick was "poor," while only 7 percent of women indicated so, the widest gender gap in Gallup's recent polling. The previous nomination, Bush's pick of Alito, produced an 8-point difference. Miers and Roberts had separations of just 1 percentage point each.
When asked what factors they think played into Obama's decision, respondents overwhelmingly said her nearly 20 years on the appellate bench (61 percent called it "very important"), followed by her intellect (59 percent) and her views on major issues and past judicial decisions (52 percent). Reinforcing past polling, the two that respondents thought factored into the decision least were her gender and ethnicity (39 percent and 34 percent, respectively).
Here's Gallup's breakdown of party reaction for the last four Supreme Court nominees:
Updated at 9:07 a.m. on May 28.
A heated confirmation battle may seem inevitable for any Supreme Court nominee, but a majority of right-leaning bloggers polled by NationalJournal.com say the GOP should keep it cool against Sonia Sotomayor.
Asked if it would be "politically smart for Republicans to try to block" Sotomayor's confirmation, 52.9 percent of the 17 right-of-center bloggers surveyed Tuesday and today said no. Meanwhile, all 20 left-leaning bloggers in the poll agreed with them.
Several right-leaning bloggers noted that Senate Republicans likely don't have the votes to stop Sotomayor's confirmation and said they have nothing to gain from blocking her. "Ultimately, I believe the confirmation is not a request for ideological approval, but a check against corruption and incompetence," said Jon Henke of The Next Right. Rob Port of Say Anything said an attempted block would be "a waste of time" and asked, "Why not let it go through and concentrate on other priorities like nationalized health care and cap-and-trade?"
But Dan McLaughlin of Baseball Crank, who voted yes, said, "It's clear that Republicans need to lay down a marker on how liberals vs. conservatives view the role of the courts. Actually defeating the nomination, which remains an unlikely result, may end up being irrelevant to that goal."
On the left, several bloggers said playing hardball on Sotomayor would seriously damage the GOP's relations with Latinos. "They mess this one up and they'll carry it as a cross into 2010, 2012, even 2016," said Liza Sabater of CultureKitchen. As for early tactics, "I don't think accusing her of reverse racism is going to do them any more good than accusing Obama of 'palling around with terrorists,'" said Ellen Brodsky of News Hounds.
National Journal's Political Insiders will weigh in on Sotomayor in this week's magazine.
A new Gallup poll suggests that Americans today are less concerned about President Obama nominating a female justice than they were in October and September 2005, in the heat of the nomination and confirmation battles of Harriet Miers and Samuel Alito.
In a survey conducted May 7-10, only 6 percent of respondents said it was "essential" that Obama select a woman judge, compared to the 14 percent who said so in the fall of 2005. Just over a quarter of those polled this time around said that it would be "a good idea, but not essential" for the president to nominate a woman (33 percent and 29 percent said so in October and September 2005, respectively). Furthermore, there's a 14 percent jump in the number of Americans indicating that "it doesn't matter" whether the nominee is female or not (50 percent in October 2005 to 64 percent today).
Americans clamoring for a Hispanic or black nominee are fewer in number than those calling for a woman. Despite pressure on Obama to appoint the nation's first Hispanic justice, just over 20 percent of respondents indicated it would be "a good idea, but not essential" to nominate a Hispanic (only 1 percent said essential), while nearly 70 percent said it doesn't matter. Several rumored nominees are Hispanic: Sonia Sotomayor of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit; Vanessa Ruiz of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals; Kim Wardlaw of the 9th Circuit; and Ruben Castillo of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.
Here's how Gallup illustrates the trend:
